India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire following intense clashes sparked by India’s Operation Sindoor, a response to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 tourists. Five days later, on May 15, the Indian Army announced that both nations’ Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) decided to continue confidence-building measures to reduce alertness levels along the Line of Control (LoC). This fragile truce, brokered after U.S. pressure, has calmed hostilities, but violations hours after the ceasefire raise doubts about Pakistan’s trustworthiness. This article examines the agreement, its implications, and whether Pakistan can be trusted to uphold it.

The Ceasefire and De-escalation Agreement

The ceasefire, effective from 5:00 PM IST on May 10, halted four days of missile strikes, drone attacks, and artillery fire, the worst in decades, with 66 civilian deaths. India’s Operation Sindoor targeted terror bases in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), while Pakistan’s Operation Bunyan Marsoos hit Indian sites. The agreement, confirmed by India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, involved stopping all military actions and activating hotlines. On May 15, the Indian Army, via X, stated both DGMOs would sustain measures to lower alertness, signaling cautious de-escalation.

However, hours after the ceasefire, explosions in Srinagar and Jammu prompted India to accuse Pakistan of “repeated violations.” Pakistan blamed India, claiming its forces showed “restraint.” Despite these breaches, the truce held by May 12, with civilian airports reopening and stock markets rising, per The New York Times. The agreement reflects a mutual desire to avoid full-scale war, but punitive measures, like India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and trade bans, remain.

Can Pakistan Be Trusted?

Pakistan’s history of supporting cross-border terrorism, including the Pahalgam attack India attributes to Pakistan-based groups, fuels skepticism. The 2021 ceasefire, fragile by 2023, collapsed with this conflict, as noted by Al Jazeera. Pakistan’s immediate violations post-ceasefire, reported by Reuters, and its denial of involvement in the tourist attack, despite India’s evidence, deepen mistrust.

India’s Stance and Challenges

India, under PM Narendra Modi, maintains a “zero-tolerance” policy on terrorism, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reiterating no talks until Pakistan ends support for militants. The Indian Army remains vigilant, with Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai warning of strong responses to violations. India’s refusal to lift trade bans or resume the Indus Waters Treaty signals distrust. The Make in India initiative, unaffected by this conflict, continues to bolster India’s economic leverage, reducing reliance on Pakistan.

Challenges include Pakistan’s inconsistent narrative—celebrating military “history” while claiming peace—and its failure to address India’s evidence of terror links. For Kashmiris, caught in the crossfire, the ceasefire offers relief but no resolution, with potential for harsher crackdowns, per the Atlantic Council.

Implications and Path Forward

The agreement to reduce alertness is a step toward de-escalation, welcomed by global leaders like Pope Leo XIV and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince. Yet, Pakistan’s track record and ceasefire breaches suggest trust must be earned through sustained action against terrorism. India’s firm stance, backed by military readiness and global support, limits Pakistan’s leverage.

For lasting peace, Pakistan must dismantle terror networks, as India demands, and both sides need robust communication channels. The BBC notes backchannels were key, but without addressing Kashmir’s root issues bilaterally, per the Simla Agreement, trust remains elusive. Pakistan’s actions in the coming months will determine if it can rebuild credibility or if this truce is another fleeting pause.

-By Manoj H