India and Pakistan, nuclear-armed rivals since 1998, have developed formidable arsenals amid ongoing tensions, particularly over Kashmir. Their nuclear programs, driven by mutual deterrence , escalated after India’s 1974 test and Pakistan’s response in 1998. Both nations modernize their arsenals through advanced missile systems and warhead development , shaping a delicate balance of power in South Asia. As of 2025, India holds a slight edge with 172 warheads compared to Pakistan’s 170, but differences in doctrine and delivery systems highlight unique strategic priorities.

Warhead Count and Production

India’s nuclear arsenal, estimated at 172 warheads, has surpassed Pakistan’s 170 for the first time in decades, reflecting India’s ongoing modernization. Pakistan, however, produces fissile material at facilities like Kahuta and Khushab, potentially enabling a stockpile of up to 200 warheads by 2030. India’s warheads include 48 aircraft-based, 80 land-based, 16 sea-based, and 28 stored, while Pakistan relies heavily on plutonium-based warheads for short- and medium-range systems. Both nations spend heavily—India $2.7 billion and Pakistan $1 billion in 2023—fueling an arms race.

Delivery Systems and Range

India’s nuclear triad—land, air, and sea—gives it a strategic advantage. The Agni-V missile, with a 5,000–8,000 km range, can target deep into Asia, and the upcoming Agni-VI aims for 10,000 km with MIRV capabilities. Pakistan’s Shaheen-III, with a 2,750 km range, is less extensive but sufficient to cover India. Pakistan also deploys tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr (70 km range) for battlefield use, unlike India, which focuses on strategic deterrence. India’s INS Arihant submarine bolsters its sea-based deterrence, while Pakistan’s naval capabilities remain limited.

Nuclear Doctrines

India adheres to a No First Use (NFU) policy, emphasizing retaliation and credible minimum deterrence, though it has reconsidered this stance since 2019. Pakistan, lacking an NFU policy, reserves the right to first use, particularly to counter India’s superior conventional forces. Pakistan’s strategic ambiguity and “red lines” deter India’s military actions, as seen in the 2001 and 2008 crises. India’s civilian-led Nuclear Command Authority contrasts with Pakistan’s more opaque command structure.

Strategic Implications

The near-parity in warheads—India’s 172 vs. Pakistan’s 170—belies deeper disparities. India’s larger economy and military (4th globally vs. Pakistan’s 12th) support its broader strategic goals, including deterring China. Pakistan’s nuclear posture focuses on India, leveraging tactical weapons to offset conventional weaknesses. A 2019 study warns a nuclear exchange could kill 100 million instantly, with billions at risk from nuclear winter. X posts reflect public anxiety, noting the “342 earthquakes” of combined warheads.

Both nations’ nuclear capabilities deter all-out war, but escalation risks persist, especially after incidents like the 2025 Pahalgam attack. Diplomacy and restraint are critical to prevent catastrophic consequences.

-By Manoj H