U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, enacted since his second term began in January 2025, have injected persistent uncertainty into the global trading system. With the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs ending in early July 2025, nations worldwide, from Asia to Europe, face renewed trade tensions. The strategy, leveraging the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), imposes tariffs ranging from 10% to 40% on imports, aiming to address trade deficits and boost U.S. manufacturing. This unpredictability, observed across continents, stems from fluctuating policies and legal challenges, raising doubts about stable global commerce.

A Policy of Flux

Trump’s tariff approach, marked by sudden announcements and reversals, keeps businesses and governments on edge. The initial 10% tariff on all imports, effective April 5, 2025, escalated to higher rates on specific countries like China (30%) and Canada (25%), only to be paused for negotiations. The recent July 8, 2025, renewal of tariffs, giving countries until August 1 to negotiate, exemplifies this inconsistency. Economists argue this volatility disrupts supply chains, with firms delaying investments amid unclear costs, a trend noted in recent analyses of U.S. trade policy shifts.

Global Ripples and Resistance

The impact spans beyond the U.S. ASEAN nations, including Malaysia and Thailand, report strained export competitiveness, while Europe braces for potential 20% tariffs unless deals are struck. The World Trade Organization (WTO) warns of a 0.2% decline in global goods trade in 2025, driven by these disruptions. Some countries, like Singapore, opt for dialogue over retaliation, yet others question the fairness of Trump’s disregard for WTO rules, suggesting a fracturing global trade architecture. Critics highlight that bilateral deals with the UK and Vietnam fall short of WTO standards, fueling skepticism.

Economic and Political Debate

While Trump touts tariff revenues—$22.8 billion in May 2025 alone—as a win, experts caution of stagflation risks, with slowed growth and rising prices. The administration’s legal battles, including a May 2025 court ruling against IEEPA misuse, add complexity, with appeals keeping tariffs intact. Some view this as a strategic negotiation tactic, while others see it as a reckless upending of decades-old trade norms, potentially weakening U.S. global standing.

The Road Ahead

As uncertainty persists into late 2025, the global trading system faces a pivotal moment. Businesses adapt by diversifying markets, but the lack of predictability may hinder long-term growth. Whether Trump’s approach reshapes trade or backfires remains unclear, leaving the world to navigate a landscape where stability hangs in the balance.

-By Manoj H